The future for the UK post-Brexit is still uncertain, according to most experts on the economy. Many believe that there is a 50/50 chance of recession in the months following the UK leaving the EU officially.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has found that the UK will go through a marked economic slowdown that will affect all aspects of business this year and the years following. However, overall they believe that the economy will grow slowly and start to thrive after 3 or 4 years post-Brexit.
In a separate report by the CBI business lobby, it has been found that small and medium-sized businesses and manufacturers have been hit the most in terms of falling sales orders. However, the business lobby is still optimistic that this will level itself out in coming months and years. However, this raises questions about the survival of some of the smaller business in the UK. Will they survive the slowing economy in coming months?
After vote Leave was found to be favoured by the majority of the British public, the UK service sector shrank at its fastest pace since the financial crisis in 2009. The Purchasing Manufacturers Index shows that the UK had the first major decline since 2009, and is so far the largest observed since the survey began keeping records.
However, some experts are claiming that all things Brexit aren’t that bad. The property market is slowing in the UK but there is a predicted growth in the next five years for the London areas. However, nothing has been said for Northern areas, and with generation rent rising in numbers, the number of houses getting sold in the coming years may slow down entirely. With that being said, the prices of mortgages have been brought down in order to encourage first-time buyers throughout the UK. Help-to-buy schemes by UK banks try to encourage sales by offering a loan on house deposits.
Some experts believe that Brexit may not lead to a recession at all, and that the UK will see a late recovery at the end of 2016 to the lows in markets across the UK. It’s predicted that we’ll leave the year on a rise of 0.1% in the economy, which is much greater than the predictions made at the start of the Brexit campaign by vote leave. However, it would still show a healthy economy despite previous predictions.
It’s all mostly speculation at this point in time, as no one can decipher the real future of the UK’s economy. However, with so many mixed reviews, it’s fair to say that panicking about any predictions should be discouraged.